Technology; past, present and future…

I attended a seminar recently co-sponsored by EPAM and Appian entitled, “Navigating Economic Uncertainty: AI, Robotics & Automation”.  It was a very interesting discussion with a big emphasis on Artificial Intelligence.  

We see a great deal of emphasis on A.I. these days, true?  (Or is it AI with no periods?  Confusing to us humans.)  There are lots of descriptions bandied about; “Generative AI”, “Responsible AI”, “Last Invention”, “Terminal”, “Cool”. 

All this reminds me of a presentation by David Smith, a futurist, who was putting then-present technology in perspective – I guess – way back in April of 2012.  I know, the Dark Ages! 

I suspect one of the reasons why presentations by futurists are so popular is they are provocative.  Part of their “WOW Factor” is all the speculation and prognostications they make.  Here are a few examples the state of the then-current and future of technology David made 11 years ago: 

• Today’s technology, we can record everything – and everything is a lot!
• Among the 5 most appreciated technologies of the past 100 years – the microwave oven topped the list (followed very closely by - the garage door opener). 
• 90% of the computer chips manufactured today don’t go into computers; automobiles and household appliances are common chip destinations. 
• 70% of the Internet traffic does not involve a person; it’s machines “talking to” machines, posing as humans. 

(How do we know if those Tweets or Xs are coming from a person or a toaster-oven?)

David Smith concluded his presentation with “shock and awe” statements about the future impacts of technology on mankind. 

I wonder how many of the provocative statements made today about AI will hold true eleven years from now?  That’s 2034.  Will that be the rise of the machines; the end of Social Security?  Will “X” still be “X”?  Will we still love our microwave ovens and garage door openers? 

As the person who trademarked, Dark Ages Computing ® in the 1990’s, it won’t come as a surprise that I’m a bit cynical about today’s continual hype on technology, technology, TECHNOLOGY!  I mean sliced bread was one thing back in the day; but today: 

Just because something is technically feasible doesn’t mean it’s a good idea. 

                   Gary A. Pokorn 

I’d like to argue with futurists and AI but I know 3 reasons why it would be futile: 

1. The machines and futurists don’t have the same sense of humor when it comes to the over-hype of technology as I do.  Futurists gets paid to prognosticate about what will happen “someday” (with a fair bit of vagueness on the “when”, I might add).  The end game for AI is still a bit vague.  Me?  I actually have to make a living selling this stuff.   Yet, I’m the one with the sense of humor!
2. Then it dawned on me that you really can’t argue with a futurist – his position is based on events that haven’t taken place yet, so we don’t know if he is accurate.  (Although our Sales Managers still argue about the accuracy of our sales forecasts, true?)  As for AI, do you set up ChatGBT to argue with yourself?  Hmmm
3. The idea of arguing with technologists, futurists, machines, or AI reminds me of our favorite, Unknown Sage: 

Arguing with an engineer is like wrestling a pig in the mud. After a few hours you realize, the pig likes it.             

OK, I have to go now – my refrigerator texted me. 

GAP 

When life gets tough we could get a helmet… or… we could leverage the peace and share the power of a positive perspective.