Forecasting…

I was helping update an assessment process for new sales managers recently.  One of the topics was “forecasting”.  In the world of business-to-business, new business selling, sales forecasting is one of my favorite topics.  Not in a “favored” way; more of an “amusing/cynical” way.

Having been an individual sales rep as well as roles in sales management, sales operations, and sales leadership, I’ve played this forecasting “game” from various positions.

I call it a game, because after all these years I believe the four, foundational pillars of delivering on what sales reps have forecasted are:

• Blind faith – we simply believe we’ll win, until we’re told we didn’t
• A wide “funnel” – if one deal pushes, we can still make our number with others
• Sand bagging – not every month, but we all need an occasional breather
• And luck   

Other than the wide funnel (which can be inspected) leadership doesn’t warm to these other pillars.  They believe there should be an algorithm; or artificial intelligence can be employed; or there’s some other scientific solution for forecast accuracy.

I’m reminded of Mike Hoffman’s comments made in this March 2019 SBI article (link) discussing private equity owned companies and the lack of forecast accuracy:

Weighted forecasts are deceiving – What’s the difference between 45% and 50%? Have you ever won 45% of deal?

SBI published a related article that same month (Link) posing this question:

Is it the sales plan or the sale people? 

Some companies fire sales reps that miss their forecast.  I suppose they believe fear improves forecast accuracy.  “Who’s to blame?” is part of the sales forecasting game, and it’s hard to blame bad luck! 

Blaming the people or the plan are two options I suppose.  For me, blame comes after-the-fact.  I advocate a more rigorous approach, before-the-fact.  It may not alter the outcome, but at least I go down fighting.

I’m speaking of each sales rep reviewing the very next step to be taken on every forecasted deal in their pipeline, every day.  Daily? Every deal?   Yes.  Plus, every sales manager viewing every deal forecasted from a “what’s wrong with this deal” perspective. Finally, leadership inspecting deals in CRM for (A) Who will sign the contract?  (B) Has anyone met with said Who to confirm that expectation?  And (C) what is the date, time, and location the highly anticipated signing ceremony will occur?

I know no one wants to miss their forecast.  I also know missing forecast happens in the real world frequently.  When I realize I’m going to miss my forecast – then what?  Do I succumb to what’s known in the trade as “happy ears” and pretend I’ll make it?  Do I succumb to fear and make stuff up? (Which is easy to do today because managers get “happy ears” too.)

What should sales managers and company executives expect from their sales reps?  First, the truth.  When it comes to sales forecasting, the only thing worse than bad news is to be surprised by it.

Truth exists; only falsehood has to be invented.

Georges Braque

Second, to learn from it:

The truth, however, is that virtually all well-established strategy models work well in some situations and cause failure in others, so the real skill is less in knowing the strategy than in sorting out the situations to which it actually applies.

                                 

Unknown Sage

We all know sales forecasting is a key business process.  If we free ourselves from the fear of missing, the four forecasting pillars become amusing in a cynical sort of way, true?

GAP

Did you like this little ditty?  You might enjoy my past posts too: www.TheQuoteGuys.com

To Dad…

Happy Father’s Day coming this Sunday!  Aren’t fathers and grandfathers great?  The memory of my father still brings a proud smile to my face (and my heart!).  If you’re lucky enough to have living fathers and grandfathers, give them a hug Sunday.

We fathers are so proud when our children demonstrate the skill of common sense we hope we have instilled in them:

Kid wisdom:

When your Dad is mad at you and asks you, “Do I look stupid?”  Don't answer him. 

Michael

Sometimes our Dads employ “tough-love”.  The worst years of my life occurred when I tried that approach.  I wasn’t skilled at it; didn’t like the outcome; and today would caution any young father to be wary of this idea.  If I could do it over again, I would do it differently.

The good news is my children are resilient.  Yours are too I bet.  (Passed down from us?)  If we are tough with them from time-to-time, they know it’s not permanent - kids are smart:

A flustered father, stressed out from his day at work, was unsuccessfully texting his kids to come in for dinner.  Finally, he walks out on his porch and yells for his kids to come in. 

At that point one youngster turns to his brother and asks, “I can’t remember, which one am I - Jesus Christ or God Dammit?” 

Unknown Sage

Some men have a very entertaining view of the world.  Take Mike Jaeger’s:

Tell a man there are 300 billion stars in the universe and he'll believe you.  Tell him the plate you're handing him is very hot and he'll have to touch it to believe it.

                                 

Dads today take great pride in continuing to provide a home for their families, even as the definition of “home” evolves:

Home, nowadays, is a place where part of the family waits ‘til the rest of the family brings the car back. 

Earl Wilson

Because my sons have children in their lives, I get to be the grandfather now!   Being the grandfather has responsibilities, too:

Sometimes the only difference we can make is passing our wisdom on to someone else who will make the bigger difference. 

Linda B. Gray

The older I get the more appreciative I am of the love and devotion I received from my father.   He wanted his sons to make a difference.  He also wanted us to be patient with his quirks.  I remember after my Mom died, my Dad ate his dinners at the hospital cafeteria two blocks from his house.  It might have been for the convenience; maybe for the memory of the last place he saw his wife alive.

He ate dinner there every evening for over twenty years.  So long, that the employees all thought Al Pokorn actually worked there.  One summer, he was even invited to their company picnic!  I didn’t mind this innocent charade.  But when he won the TV in the employee raffle, I told him he had to give it back!

We are all a little quirky I suppose.  Today when my children use one of my little sayings, or demonstrate a family value or tradition that has been passed down from father to son, it brings a proud smile to my face (and my heart)!

So, here’s to my Dad; and your Dad; and everyone’s Dad and their family traditions.  They have helped us all make a difference - a tradition to be passed down.

GAP

When life gets tough we could get a helmet… or… we could leverage the peace and share the power of a positive perspective.

Am I not what I don’t eat?

The difficult job climate is impacting graduates from the Class of 2020.  It’s even worse for job seekers from the Class of 1975.  Not that we’re ancient relics - but once you’re over 60, some hiring managers think that way. 

For those young or old seeking gainful employment appearance is a factor, especially weight.  It’s no secret that obesity in America has been out of control.  The 2020 stay at home orders have increased calorie intake while decreasing calorie burn rate for many of us.  Our “battle of the bulge” needs some reinforcements. 

No exception here; I’m 20 pounds over my college playing weight.  If I’m going to address that it will have to come from the intake end vs. the burn rate end.  I’m reminded of Margaret Thatcher’s quote:

You may have to fight a battle more than once to win it.

Some have said, “You are what you eat.”  Does that mean you aren’t what you don’t eat?  But I digress.

In today’s always online world it’s easier than ever to get caught up in our job; our in-box; social media.  It’s easy to get hooked on working hours instead of working out.  Add-in close proximity to the kitchen and the convenience of Door Dash and our waist lines are engaged in a battle with our cravings.  And here’s the thing, from my former manager Tom DeFloria:

     Abs are made in the kitchen; not in the gym.

There is nowhere to hide.  To make matters worse, there is a tremendous amount of misinformation about food, diet, and approaches to maintaining a healthy weight.  Here are a few examples:

Question:      How can I calculate my body/fat ratio?

Answer:        Well, if you have a body, and you have body fat, your ratio is one-to-one.  If you have two bodies, your ratio is two-to-one, etc.

Question:      I’ve heard that cardiovascular exercise can prolong life.  Is this true?

Answer:        How could that be true?  Your heart is only good for so many beats, and that’s it.  Everything wears out eventually, so how could speeding up your heart make you live longer?  If you want to live longer – take a nap.

Question:      My wife says I should cut down on meat, and eat more fruits and vegetables.  What do you say?

Answer:        Look, what does a cow eat?  Corn.  And what’s corn?  A vegetable.  So a steak is nothing more than an efficient mechanism of delivering vegetables to your system.

Question:      Is beer bad for you?

Answer:        Look, it goes to the earlier point about vegetables.  As we all know, scientists divide everything in the world into three categories: animal, mineral, and vegetable.  Well, we all know that beer is not an animal, and it’s not on the periodic table of elements, so that only leaves one thing, right?  My advice:  Have a burger and a beer and tell everyone you’re on a vegetarian diet.

                            

Unknown Sage

I think it was none other than Colonel Harlan Sanders (yes, that Colonel Sanders believe it or not) who said;

Make sure you don’t wind up the richest person in the cemetery.  You can’t do business from there.

                                 

Yes weight and work are connected.  Being overweight is nothing to take lightly; we might all want to lighten up our in-take. Our health is much more important than just a job.  When Uber Eats delivers a salad and protein shake we can still say “Bon Appetit!

GAP

When life gets tough we could get a helmet… or… we could leverage the peace and share the power of a positive perspective.

G.O.A.T.s…

Like other sports fanatics, I can’t wait for the safe resumption of games.  Until actual competition returns media sports programming is trying to fill the void.  Yuck!

Have you noticed when broadcast sports can’t report on live events they gravitate to the “greatest of all time” debate?  Personally, I find these arguments contrived. 

In my opinion, opinions about greatness in sports (or any other field for that matter) don’t matter. What matters are results.  Today’s talking heads pontificate about why this person or that is the GOAT while making excuses why their particular GOAT doesn’t hold actual, individual records; or the most team championships; or blah, blah, blah.  Their GOAT just passes their “eye test.”

I know all about the eye test.  I played basketball at a small college a long, long time ago.  My freshman year coach was also an assistant varsity football coach:

On the first day of practice I was warming up under the watchful eye of Coach Bill Foss.  He noticed I had a small, jingle-bell attached to my shoelace.  My teammates and I enjoyed this unusual idea - back in high school!  Bells on shoes in college?  Not a good eye test.  Coach Foss pulled out a linebacker, blocking pad from his football gear; his eye test for me.

To his surprise, I reached down into my sock and pulled out a mouthpiece.  He was quite familiar with mouthpieces on the football field; he wasn’t as accustomed to anyone using one on his basketball teams back in the day.  I competed in his rebounding drill and in real life games, too.  Results over jingle-bells? Whoda thought!

Now I’m no GOAT.  Every record I set in college has been broken.  My lack of an eye test probably gave me an advantage. 

In my best year I played low post.  At 6’3” and 205 pounds, I was the smallest center in every game.  But I had a record-setting year.  Of course, I had the mouthpiece LoL!  Even so, my teammate Kjeld Sorensen was the toughest competitor on the team that year – and on any team, any year I ever played.  Even without a mouthpiece.

The problem with eye test debates is physical appearances don’t tell the full story.  Annuls of greatness are packed with competitors who didn’t look the part.  The mental and emotional sides to competition are often the difference makers.

Babe Ruth was pudgy; Walter Payton was undersized; no one saw Jesse Owens on cable TV; Bob Beamon’s 1968 Olympic record still stands today – do you even know who Bob Beamon is?

Show me the eye test player who scored 100 points in a single game or grabbed 55 rebounds in another and then I’ll accept that player as the NBA GOAT vs. Wilt Chamberlain.  Show me the player who won 18 major championships using a persimmon wood driver; with a steel shaft; a golf ball made with 30 year old technology; and never had a hint of steroid use; and then I’ll accept that player as the PGA GOAT vs. Jack Nicklaus. 

They even argue about GOATs in horse racing.  This coming Tuesday marks the 47^th year of a never-seen-before and never-seen-since race won by Secretariat.  The Triple Crown winner won the Belmont Stakes by 31 lengths! (Link)  I call THAT results!

Yes, I’m looking forward to the resumption of actual competition in sports.  Others will continue to debate their GOATs.  For me, I’m looking past their eye tests.   

GAP

When life gets tough we could get a helmet… or… we could leverage the peace and share the power of a positive perspective.

A Bear and a Beer…

Springtime is here; warmer weather; reminds us summer is on its way.  Summer makes me think of a cold beer on a hot day; which makes me think of my Dad.  He loved a cold beer on hot days. 

When I think about my Dad I can’t help but remember his perspective about how much things cost.  He’d always pine, “Oh, the cost of gas is outlandish!”  Or he would complain about the price of bananas; milk; bread; you name it.

I bet you’ve heard these complaints from the older generation.  They are “Depression Era Babies”; people who grew up in very different times than ours.  Now, I don’t like over spending any more than the next guy, but I know I am truly blessed.   Of course, I get that annual shock about this time of year when income taxes are filed.  Reminds me of the saying from our favorite, Unknown Sage,

When I first started working I used to dream of the day when I might be earning the salary I'm starving on now.

When my 401-k statement arrives?  Well, my Dad’s complaints on how far a dollar can’t go any more come back to mind.  I think of the,

Market Terminology for Dummies:

Bull Market - A random market movement causing the investor to mistake himself for a financial genius.

Momentum Investing - The fine art of buying high and selling low.

Standard & Poor - Your investment strategy in a nutshell.

Mailbits.com

         

So it’s obvious that I’m going to be working for “a while”.  Let’s just say that I’m not quite to the point of being a Wal-Mart Greeter, but I am paying closer attention to where their employment application kiosks are located.  I’m trying not to let this get me down, though - I love my work, and I’m blessed with my income. 

I’d like to keep working as long as I’m physically (and mentally) able.  If you saw my golf game you’d tell me not to retire yet either.  However, like my Dad I confess that I’m starting to pay closer attention to how much things cost.  Norman Augustine, the former head of Martin Marietta Corporation did also.  He shared this story:

A bear who, displaying a $5 bill, had entered a bar and ordered a beer and; the owner of the bar directed the bartender to give the bear the beer, saying that since the bear didn't look very smart to only give it 25 cents in change.  Having done as he had been instructed, and having watched incredulously as the bear placidly sipped the beer, the bartender finally could no longer contain himself and sought to engage the bear in conversation.  You know, he said to the bear, we don't get many bears in this bar.  To which the bear is said to have replied, at $4.75 a beer, it's no wonder.

Funny thing about money; no matter how much we make, it’s not quite enough to take our minds off the price of things.  How we deal with the delta between our take home pay and our household budget has a lot to do with our daily outlook, yes?

“Houseless”, adj. 

Having paid all taxes on household goods.

Ambrose Bierce 

So whether it was my Dad’s watchful eye on prices; filing income taxes each year; or that bear placidly sipping his beer; all serve to remind me that my glass is truly half-full.

GAP

When life gets tough we could get a helmet… or… we could leverage the peace and share the power of a positive perspective.

Our Loans to Repay…

Happy Memorial Day in advance everyone! 

Next Monday is an occasion to celebrate America - our America - our nation of great opportunity and great diversity.  Even though we Americans are addressing many difficulties, Monday is a day to celebrate our blessings and our future possibilities.   

On any other day, it’s easy to get mired in everything that’s wrong with America.  What concerns you the most? Covid 19?  The economy?  Health care?  World peace?  Lots to complain about, true?

Conservation of our Earth for future generations is another difficulty - and a hotbed of debate.  Nothing new about this however; it is a topic dating back to our country’s original landlords:

We do not inherit the earth from our ancestors – we borrow it from our children. 

Native American proverb

Do you believe we’re experiencing (and contributing to) global warming?  If we are, what can each of us do about it?  Will our children feel the same way about lending us their Earth as we do about inheriting the Social Security trust fund from our parents?  (Not much “trust” in the use of that trust fund, yes?)

Memorial Day is a day to remember and to honor the men and women of our armed forces who have preserved a country where cultures of diversity come together unlike any other place on Earth.  It’s a time to salute our service men and women; present and past; and those who have made the ultimate sacrifice to protect our way of life: 

We all benefit today from those who came before us.  But what are we making of our opportunities?  And what opportunities (and debts) will we leave for our future generations? 

In every community, there is work to be done. 

In every nation, there are wounds to heal. 

In every heart, there is the power to do it. 

Marianne Williamson

Monday is a holiday and a time for celebration not worries; for national pride not fear; for appreciation not anger.  Monday, Americans can celebrate the interesting, diverse, and humorous lifestyle others have enriched us with as noted by our favorite, Unknown Sage:

Only in America…

can a pizza get to your house faster than an ambulance. 

Only in America…

are there handicap parking places in front of a skating rink.

Only in America…

do drugstores make the sick walk all the way to the back of the store to get their prescriptions while healthy people can buy cigarettes at the front. 

Only in America…

do people order double cheeseburgers, large fries, and a diet coke. 

Only in America…

do banks leave both doors open and then chain the pens to  the counters. 

Only in America…

do we leave cars worth thousands of dollars in the driveway and put our useless junk in the garage.                      

Only in America…

do we buy hot dogs in packages of ten and buns in packages of eight.  

Only in America…

do we use the word "politics" to describe the process so well: "Poli" in Latin meaning "many" and "tics" meaning  "bloodsucking creatures." 

Only in America…

do they have drive-up ATM machines with Braille lettering.

                             

Yes, remember “only in America” on Monday and enjoy the holiday.  Then we’ll go back to work Tuesday – working to overcome our difficulties; working to leverage our opportunities; working to preserve our way of life for future generations.

Let’s start working to pay back the loan on our planet Earth to our children and their children.

GAP

When life gets tough we could get a helmet… or… we could leverage the peace and share the power of a positive perspective.

A Father’s principle…

In Principle-Based Leadership ©, Jim Anderson writes:

When one bases his life on principles, 99 percent of his decisions are already made.

My principle is I will take care of my family as best as I can for as long as I can - no matter what - until the last breath I take... for Eric among others:

I have known Eric for 44 years this coming Monday – his birthday.  Over that period Eric’s Mom and Dad have shared some of his most joyous occasions; and some of his most upsetting events; and in between these highs and lows Eric would tell you that he has been doing alright.  And for Eric, doing alright shows how amazing he truly is.

You see, Eric is the strongest person I know.  I’ll give you an example.  Close your eyes and return to the happiest day of your life – feel how you felt during your most exhilarating moments.  OK, now think back to how you felt on your saddest, darkest, most depressed day ever.  Just set those mental bookmarks in your mind’s eye.  There is an unbelievably wide and powerful range of human emotion, yes? 

For most of us, we migrate from our highest highs and our lowest lows slowly; with long, “recovery” spans of simply feeling average in between.  Unfortunately, Eric is different; his mood swings back and forth, between euphoric highs and debilitating lows in a matter of minutes - multiple times - every hour!  Now picture your life with his type of mood swings – as if our other challenges aren’t enough to deal with. 

Rapid Cycling – that’s the technical term for Eric and others who suffer from Bi-Polar Disorder.  And Eric lives every day with this unwelcome guest.  Medical science is not much help.  Bi-Polar Disorder is an affliction of the brain; and very difficult to properly diagnose and treat.  Trial and error, mostly.  That means people with Bi-Polar Disorder typically wind up dealing with this on their own. 

Most can’t hold down a steady job.  Eric can – and he has consistently been a “go to” person for his company.  He is a skilled tradesman; good with customers; dependable; hard working; shows up no matter what; a positive attitude that no job is too tough; that’s Eric.  Most people with Bi-Polar Disorder can’t live independently.  Eric does – and if you met him, you would never know the internal turmoil he is living with.  He has a pleasant personality; a great smile; a nice sense of humor; knowledgeable of current events; just like the rest of us.

But Eric isn’t really like the rest of us.  Just getting up and facing the day; every day; takes enormous strength.  And he offers no excuses – never has.  Eric has earned success and experienced failure.  No matter; Eric treats each day anew, the best he possibly can. And when you greet him saying, “Hi. How you doing?”  you will almost always hear him say, “I’m doing alright”. 

If Eric does alright each and every day even though feeling these uncontrollable mood swings – should we do any less? 

No, I don’t have Bi-Polar Disorder, but it lives next door. And though I don’t have it, I can see first-hand the strength Eric has as he lives with it.  I’m very proud to say that Eric is my son.  And one day I hope to learn the source of his amazing strength so I too can be, “doing alright”.

GAP

When life gets tough we could get a helmet… or… we could leverage the peace and share the power of a positive perspective.